Pin It Now!
Now off of sad subjects. Any Kentucky Derby predictions for today? I was raised around horses, and the Derby was a big event growing up. Although my husband isn't terribly interested, I try to keep the tradition alive. :) I can honestly say that while this is likely the most combined talent we have seen in years for the Kentucky Derby, I'm not terribly excited about any of the starters. All except Gemologist have been beat before, mostly by each other. And all are so lightly raced that we really don't know what they are capable of. And none have raced with this substrate or distance!
I do think Trinniberg is clearly the fastest. He will likely set a dizzying, unattainable pace no one (not even himself) will be able to maintain and he will drop out at the end leaving the late closers and long shots to battle it out after he has exhausted the bulk of the field. Although arguably the best horse starting today, I don't like Hansen for this race, but I'd watch him closely for the remainder of the Triple Crown. (He is also a near-white gray...I expect to see him start as a favorite since many last minute casual betters like to put money on the horse they can see in the pack.) If Hansen can pull it off today, I truly believe he is our ONLY shot at a Triple Crown.
I like Creative Cause, but he lost a shoe last night and seemed off his game. Liaison has largely only been raced at Santa Anita, where he didn't like the substrate, so he may well be worth more that originally supposed. The undefeated Gemologist has had two of his 5 wins at Churchhill Downs - he likes the track but there but has never run the distance. El Padrino is probably as good a quality athlete as Hansen, but based on recent performance I think it is safe to say he is still a very long shot. Bucked off his rider in his last race, too. :)
Went The Day Well will be running in blinkers - his last win was his first go with them, and they seem to be helping. Union Rags has been touted for the last four months as the 2012 Derby winner. His workouts seem to indicate that he likes the track, but again I think the distance will be a major factor. Bodemeister is interesting. Unraced as a two-year-old, he is a late bloomer who has had a couple impressive starts. Eventually I think he might be really good - but this is a lot of race for him right now. I think Dullahan has one of the best chances - he is a late closer who would never have a shot if it weren't for Trinniberg.
It's really hard to pick a favorite with such a wildcard field. :) My picks? Haven't decided yet. I always choose in the saddling paddock after I've had a chance to watch them move and see how they are responding. Right now I would say my one to watch (in no order) are El Padrino (long shot), Dullahan (closer), Gemologist (consistent), Bodemeister (talented) Creative Cause (if doesn't scratch) and Hansen (quality).
So there you have it. :)